Old Dogs & New Kids on the Block: QB Breakdowns

The NFL is in a transient place at its most pivotal position. This week, we look at a member of the old guard having his best season, and a young buck breaking through.

A much weirder, wilder, and more entertaining week! In the interest of saying nothing new, success starts and ends under center in this league. Absent an A- to A+ quarterback, you find yourselves in Jets games that require multiple special teams scores to counterbalance your starter’s (who played the entire game) 54 passing yards. On the more successful end you’ll find Philadelphia, whose Tush Push Coordinator Jalen Hurts and sterling supporting cast manage to MacGyver their way around Nick Sirianni’s diabolical game management and Hurts’ mercurial downfield vision. Playing a Packers team fielding UW-Green Bay receivers helps.

Gracefully, we are also flush with ascending and steadfast excellence at QB. This week, we’re going to show West Coast Bias and Midwest Mindfulness, breaking down the Week 10 performances of two guys drawing a lot of attention this week: Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams. Stafford led the Rams offense to another dominant offensive performance against a wounded, but fiesty 49ers squad. Williams and the Bears keep finding rabbits at the bottom of that hat, pulling out a late 4th quarter comeback against the Giants.

We’ll parse through each game, highlighting some key plays that speak to each signal caller’s strengths. What has Stafford sharpened in his 17th season? How has Caleb improved under head coach Ben Johnson’s tutelage? Let’s dive in!

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 24-36, 280 Passing Yards, 7.78 yds/attempt, 4 Touchdowns, 1 Sack Taken

Stafford’s 2025 inspires incredulity in its own right, even for a future Hall-of-Famer with a Super Bowl ring. Feeling every bit of his 37 years on this planet, the Rams star battled a back issue this preseason that kept him out of so much practice that corners of social media jokingly(?) prognosticated his demise. That injury has exponentially decreased his already fading mobility. Per PFF, Stafford is bottom 10 in time to throw, bottom 10 in sacks taken, and has had three total scrambles this season, tied with similarly tortoise-like Joe Flacco. He’s not running and is getting the ball out quickly, surely in some small part to avoid hits.

It hasn’t mattered. Stafford is arguably the leading MVP candidate and has taken over as the odds-on favorite in some sportsbooks. His 25 touchdowns lead the league, his two picks are tied with Baker Mayfield amongst passers with at least 200 attempts. The Vulcan mind-meld between he and head coach Sean McVay has allowed them to construct a league-best passing attack despite a banged up offensive line and a QB with negative nine rushing yards.

First play of the game. Almost everything the Rams are awesome at in one serving. Stafford sells play action, hits the top of his drop, and delivers a perfect ball to rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson that is one toenail from an explosive play to start the day.

Stafford’s mobility may be limited, but he’s in no way struggling to execute drops or designed rollouts that add to the variability of the Rams’ offense. Later in this same drive (ending in a Kyren Williams rushing TD) Stafford hits Davante Adams on a play-action boot - translation: moving to his right out of the pocket - that was a single stride length from a score. Execution usurps foot speed.

Perfect example of such on this next play. Already up 14-0 and deep in the red zone after a San Francisco turnover, Stafford displays another superpower he and other top QBs continuously demonstrate: using every blade of grass.

Much has been made about the Rams’ dominance in and usage of 13 personnel this season (one running back, three tight ends) and this is an exemplar for why. Davis Allen doesn’t Allen Iverson anyone out of there shoes, but he and his tight end brethren make play-action easier to sell. Out of that concept, Stafford works towards the sideline, Allen’s defender crashes down towards Tyler Higbee and he just lofts it over his head while going out of bounds. Josh Allen is the leading expert at this maneuver. Maintain stress on the defense as long as possible and solutions materialize. The defensive back on this play clearly thought he had help behind him, but extended plays lengthen the opportunity for a mistake to be made. Defenders are forced to make last second reads as the QB approaches the sideline (particularly in the red zone, with condensed space) and great throwers make them wrong every time. Also Stafford’s 400th career touchdown pass!

The Niners weren’t as despondent as a 21-0 deficit in the first 16 minutes might suggest, but LA’s ruthless offensive efficiency kept this result in hand the rest of the way. Stafford wasn’t required to thread the needle with the game in the balance this week, so here’s a few examples of some the other cool shit he’s pulling off.

Sidewinder around the defender? No problem. Stafford’s had that in his bag since 2009. Part of the reason that McVay began to struggle with and wanted to move off of Jared Goff was a lack of this kind of talent. Goff has remade himself into a masterful operator of the Lions’ war machine, but Stafford has always been able to adjust find creative solutions and make chicken salad just in how he can manipulate his arm and maintain accuracy.

A gorgeous drop. Perfect play-action, top of the drop, perfect touch. Ferguson makes up for it with a 20+ yard catch on the same drive, but had already been sentenced to centuries on the JUGS machine.

Stafford’s last score was a walk-in by Colby Parkinson after a Niners morale-killing turnover on downs. As clean as performances come, a more competitive score (possible given LA’s defense is leaky outside of the front four) could’ve easily have demanded a 50 point day. Not mentioned enough were Adams and Puca Nacua, who’ve been arguably the top receiver tandem in the league. Both are elite space creators being fed by someone who doesn’t need big windows. Puca leaves nothing on the table after the catch, widening an already cavernous well of playcalling options. Undergirded by a rushing game with the ever-reliable Kyren Williams and increasingly involved Blake Corum, Stafford is well-supported. He’s taken advantage.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 20-36, 220 Passing Yards, 6.11 yds/attempt, 8 Rushing Attempts, 63 rushing yards, 1 Passing Touchdown, 1 Rushing Touchdown, 0 sacks taken

Be still, my beating heart. They don’t like to make it easy! Down 10 with 3:56 left on the clock (just 237 seconds, for the conversion curious) Chicago keeps clenching fingers on that monkey’s paw. A 24-20 win, capped by 17 yard rushing touchdown from Williams. I actually want to work backwards and use that final scoring play to illustrate what really is starting to work in Caleb’s game: when his athleticism and quality decision making coalesce.

First and foremost, two players motioning across the formation to block sells the hell out the play action fake, sending Williams on a boot left. Three receivers in front of him, layered low, middle, and high (Odunze in the end zone). In this situation, big game hunting would be understandable, especially with your best receiver in the end zone and having just missed big throws earlier in the day (we’ll get to that). Instead, Caleb scampers to the edge as all those potential targets block a freeway into the endzone. Good decisions all around, wonderful play design, and a timely score for a team that ranks 22nd in red zone opportunities converted into touchdowns.

Play-action into a laser to the center of the field. Dogmatic of everything Johnson’s Detroit days taught us about how he wants to play football. Caleb has dramatically improved on play fakes, raising his depth of target by three full yards on the play type while fully embracing a big play mentality between the numbers. Williams is 5th in PFF’s “Big Time Throws” to the deep middle of the field (20+ yards) despite a nasty case of butterfingers in the receiver room (25% drop percentage in that range, worst in the NFL).

Speaking of drops!

That would’ve been awesome!

That one too! Even moreso! Almost identical flubs by the targeted receiver. Caleb escapes pressure to the right on both plays, and throws bullets that slip through the hands of DJ Moore and Olamide Zacchaeus. It’s cold and they’re missiles, but the receivers make the money, too. Neither roll out was frantic; two technically delightful throws on the run that would make one passing touchdown day into arguably the most enthralling of Williams’ young career. Good thing there weren’t more consequential drops!

Oh dear.

No guarantee Swift gets the first down there, but worse in context of his teammates’ errors. It’s okay, everyone’s allowed one. First cold weekend in Chicago, after all.

Olamide gets two, I guess! Seriously, no pomp or circumstance here. Caleb takes the snap in an empty formation and hits Zacchaeus in the hands 20 yards down field. Unacceptable regardless of temperature, and a type of throw I can confidently say was not a given for Williams last year, or even a month ago. His consistency has slowly improved on the “easy stuff” (clean pockets, open first/second reads) and that lends itself to conviction on scrambles and out of structure plays. Convert the above plays (plus another 30-40 yards that went through Swift’s hands and off Rome Odunze’s fingertips, good god) and this is properly appraised as another breakthrough performance.

A couple more notes. Williams’ technically took zero sacks in this game (two were called back by penalties). The Theo Benedet Experiment at left tackle is a necessary evil, although he seems to be marginally improving. Caleb is becoming one of the best in the league at spinning out of danger and creating positive outcomes. Exhibit A:

Exhibit B:

Genuinely graceful in comparison to some of the bear-on-a-unicycle pocket movement we saw last year. Colston Loveland bails Williams out on a throw that was a little wide, but a little karmic retribution feels appropriate for this game. He’s still susceptible to pressure - his completion percentage is well below 50 on such plays - but the machinations of evading defenders is looking much better. More than a few sacks from last year’s league-leading 68 fell on Caleb’s indecision. Those warts remain. But as the line has improved at preventing pressure, he’s improved at avoiding it.

At first blush, 220 yards passing, an under 60% completion rate, and a seemingly undeserved win underwhelms. In context of what could’ve been, the process is good. Williams’ has clearly improved under Johnson, and not by becoming the hyper-efficient game management automaton (complimentary) that Goff is in Detroit. His creativity and big-play instincts are actually being nurtured. If this growth continues, the Bears’ offense - with Caleb as its ignition - might be enough to propel them to the postseason in a daunting NFC.