NFC Wheel of Chaos! Bonus: Just How Screwed are the Colts?
Just what we all expected. In the final quarter of the season, how wacky can the NFC playoff picture become? Plus, is Indianapolis running out of gas?
Ever since a turbulent Thanksgiving weekend, the NFL playoff race has been in a tizzy. Well, half of it. New England and Denver have tightened their vice on pole positions in the AFC as the morass below them have begun to slot into place. Over in the NFC, the opposite side of the bracket is morphing into a Mad-Maxian deathmatch between Malört fueled chutzpah, the corpse of a 15-2 juggernaut, and the Micah Parsons’ farcical quote factory - and that’s just in the North.
Across the rest of the field, prospects aren’t much clearer. We’re just over a month out from wild-card weekend and one of the division leaders still sounds like this:
“I wish I could tell you this is exactly what it is, and this is hard,” Eagles head coach/sandwich order collector Nick Sirriani said. “It’s not easy to be successful, stay successful, so we have to, again, do it collectively. We have to do it collectively as a unit. Obviously, if I knew exactly what it was and everything that it was, then we’d have fixed it. But right now, we’re still searching and we’re still looking, and (there’s) a lot of football left to play.”
Oh, dear. Mind you, this was two weeks ago after the now 8-5 Eagles lost on Black Friday, and before Philly’s $51 million dollar quarterback committed four turnovers (including a twofer on one play!) in a loss to one-handed Justin Herbert. Also, Sirriani has struggled with the media over the years - once infamously seeming to bring his daughters to a press conference to stave off firing - but this is worse. An 8-4 team that just won the Super Bowl “collectively” has no idea what’s wrong. The season’s pretty close to over! It just got worse! The Rams also lost two weeks ago to put themselves in a deadlock with Seattle (and only one up on the voodoo 49ers) but can chock it up to Carolina devil magic. Detroit gave themselves a chance and seemingly vanquished the surging Cowboys, only for the Eagles to prop the door to the division open with their own excrement. We also probably didn’t watch the most important Bears-Packers game this season.
Even further, how seriously should we consider the possibility that Carolina might just outright win the NFC South? Detroit’s out of the playoffs? Is that Jerry Jones’ music? So much is on the table for football’s messier half that we’re going to spin the NFC Wheel of Chaos and preemptively consider the potential goofiness of the final standings.
Reason Prevails
There are plenty of different permutations for seeding, so let’s give time to the most interesting and sensical. All percentages are provided by NFL.com:
Most Likely No. 1 Seeds:
Rams: 42%
Seahawks: 32%
Packers: 12%
Seattle and Los Angeles are the titans of this season, duking it out as the mortals squabble down below. They are No. 1 and 2, respectively, in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) by a lot. They’ve taken notes from each other. Both teams are dominant on the lines, tied for first in least sacks allowed and each top seven in sacks recorded on defense. Both are top five in yards per attempt, and each has - at least - one superstar receiver. The Rams take the edge because they’ve already beaten Seattle, and likely have two layups against Arizona and Atlanta, albeit after Detroit and the Seahawks. Seattle has four possible playoff teams remaining. Sort of. Indianapolis, led by Riley Leonard, might not bother getting off the plane (more on them later).
I’d propose the Rams as the most rational choice, mostly based on signal caller. Seattle’s defense is one of the two best in the NFL, and the Rams’ is just good. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a cheat code, but Puka Nacua is right there. The biggest difference - and why Seattle fans know they could implode at any moment - is turnovers. Sam Darnold has been a gunslinger and more than justified their decision to trade in the comparably floundering Geno Smith, but has 16 total turnovers to Stafford’s 7. His four picks against the Rams lost them the game that put them in this position.
A brief aside to the Packers. Jordan Love is encroaching on the upper tier of quarterback, so long as he can exorcise the demon that forces him to throw the most mortifying interception you’ve ever seen once per contest. The defense is better, and they have the best pass rusher in the conference. They’re just a half-game back (so glad the tie mattered) but have to play the Broncos, Bears in Chicago, and the Ravens likely fighting for their season. Odds are Brian Schottenheimer haunts them, and they finish one tie from a bye. Sneaky reason to root for chalk here - there’s a chance we get Bears-Packers round three on wild-card weekend, which we will naturally call the Thrilla in Mozzarella! I’m so sorry. An additional condolence for whomever between Tampa Bay and Carolina gets pantsed on live television by the loser of the NFC West race.
Most Likely Outcome:
Los Angeles
Green Bay
Philadelphia
Tampa Bay
Seattle
San Francisco
Chicago/Detroit
Sensibly, this is where we end up. The Wheel of Chaos claims no victims, the best divisions in football get at least two teams each. One of the top two seeds wins the Super Bowl. Yawn.
Chaos Reigns
This is more like it. Much in the theme of a chaotic 2025, this menagerie of bipolar teams is far more likely to produce an eclectic result. The events of Week 14 only the muddied the waters. Although as reliable as the local snake oil salesman, the NFL’s “Playoff Picture” webpage has 10 teams with a greater than 1% chance of playing into January. I’d argue every single one could conceivably win their division or miss the playoffs entirely, via divine intervention or self-combustion.
Who has a case? Who doesn’t. With so much attention on Seattle and Los Angeles as the likely one-seeds, it’s easy to forget that San Francisco is lurking one game behind at 9-4. Two losses to the Rams have them behind the 8-ball, but with a game left against Seattle they could fall ass-backwards into a one or two seed in a season where Mac Jones started eight games. My favorite part of football is all the sense it makes!
Chicago was the number one seed just one unfortunate Sunday ago. Caleb Williams continues to improve, and was one short-changed pass from tying the game against the division favorites. Over the previous five games, the Bears were averaging almost 200 rushing yards per game, were top five in offensive DVOA, and crept towards the middle of the pack defensively. They took Green Bay to the final seconds, and likely would’ve gone for two to ice it. If Kyler Gordon manages to not get hurt during a warmup, this secondary also has a chance to recover to full strength and give Chicago a signature unit.
The Lions are out as we speak and likely couldn’t catch Green Bay after losing to them twice, but could easily supplant Chicago for the 6th or 7th seed with another head-to-head win. A Hindenburg flameout by San Francisco or Philadelphia (they’re trying!) could put all three NFC North combatants in play, but they’re far more likely to cannibalize each other. Keep an eye out for Week 18 in Chicago, where Detroit could easily be vying for the final wild card or division at large. Gibbs and the alchemy-aided corpse of their defense might be enough to drag them across the finish line, or Jared Goff in the cold could spell doom.
Finally, Dallas. This remains deeply unlikely. Their only path to the postseason is through Philly - they’re 2.5 games back from the nearest wild card team and just lost to one of foes they’d have to jump. But. Dak Prescott has arguably been the most efficient QB in the league the entire season, and has the most passing yards over the last five games (a who-knows-anything aside, Jacoby Brissett is second). Ceedee Lamb might be concussed, but he and George Pickens remain two of the five best receivers this season, even as Pickens has drawn untoward attention about his effort. Not to give Jerry Jones too much - or any - credit, but the defense has been not bottom-10 against the run since trading for Quinnen Williams. Being mildly-not-horrendous on defense might be enough against the Vikings, Commies, Giants, and Chargers.
What comes next hinges on Philadelphia going at least 2-2 down the stretch and Dallas going 4-0. They play the Raiders, Commanders twice, and Bills. Only one loss you can count on; Chaos is relying on Marcus Mariota or Geno Smith. Dallas plays similar cupcakes, but is - to their great benefit at this point - not the Eagles. The Eagles are 28th in offensive success rate on the season, have lost their last three games, and appear close to Survivor-voting off one of Hurts or offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo (the second search result while trying to spell his name right, it stated “patullo house egged” for a fuller picture of how things are going). Squint too hard, and it’s already happened. Mayhem ensues:
Weirdest, Goofiest Outcomes:
Green Bay
San Francisco
Dallas
Carolina
Seattle
Los Angeles
Detroit
OR. After turning a few ones into zeros…
Seattle
Chicago
Dallas
Carolina
Los Angeles
Green Bay
San Francisco
What a world. In both these scenarios, Philly cedes its previously insurmountable lead, and any of the wild card teams could win the whole damn thing. Not addressed was Carolina overtaking Tampa Bay, even though they’re not favored. Baker Mayfield seems debilitated and the Bucs just lost to Tyler Shough-era Saints. These teams still play twice. I’ll give the Panthers the edge despite their stochastic preference to play like an entirely new team every week. Chicago either takes the division - vanquishing Detroit and Green Bay - or bows out completely. The only guarantee at the end of it all is that Jalen Hurts is a Raider.
AFC Quick Peek: What havoc hath the Colts wrought?
It was bold in the moment.
The Colts were 8-2 with one of the best offenses of the 21st century. Head coach Shane Steichen had saved his and general manager Chris Ballard’s jobs, Daniel Jones’ career, and banished the Anthony Richardson pick to the depths of Tartarus. With full faith in Jones - a quarterback who had previously won more than five games as a starter once - they traded their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks for defensive back Sauce Gardner. A previous All-Pro who had failed to maintain the elite production of his rookie season. To be clear, he is still good. Really good! He’s also under contract control for a few more years, the draft assets just imply you won’t need a quarterback the next two years.
That appears untrue. Jones is down an Achilles, the Colts are down to 8-5, and Riley Leonard - a man who is most known for being ran to the point of puking in the national championship game - is about to be atomized by the Seahawks. Even he is dealing with a knee issue that might necessitate Brett Rypien being bonesawed in his stead. Richardson is still on IR after reportedly fracturing his eye with a resistance band, an issue that - all jokes aside - seemed to seriously risk his vision. (Edit: Philip Rivers seems on track to start this game. Rivers is older than his head coach, offensive coordinator, and Prince William. Forgive any skepticism that he will save his buddy Shane’s job.)
Nothing good can come from the rest of this season. Jacksonville and Houston are surging, with both likely to make the playoffs. The Colts are now underdogs to make the postseason, after so recently being the gold standard. It shows how easily gold can tarnish, sure, but what’s next? Ballard has escaped culpability for the team’s stagnation since Andrew Luck stunningly retired, but such a misplay of assets would be a death knell for anyone else. Do you send Steichen to pasture along with him? The offense was astoundingly effective when rolling, but there’s little hope for next year without a functional quarterback. A QB class projected to be great, locked behind the mistakes of an administration looking to save its own hide.
The buck should stop with Ballard. He made the Gardner move looking to buttress a roster that was saving his job. Steichen should probably be given one more opportunity to save Richardson and rehab Jones. Maybe trade for Kyler Murray to feign respectability at the most important position, if that provides any. But honestly? If the Irsay daughters wanted to wipe the slate clean of the compounding errors committed in the past two years and clear the deck of the last leadership their father hired? They’d be justified.