Across the rest of the field, prospects aren’t much clearer. We’re just over a month out from wild-card weekend and one of the division leaders still sounds like this:

“I wish I could tell you this is exactly what it is, and this is hard,” Eagles head coach/sandwich order collector Nick Sirriani said. “It’s not easy to be successful, stay successful, so we have to, again, do it collectively. We have to do it collectively as a unit. Obviously, if I knew exactly what it was and everything that it was, then we’d have fixed it. But right now, we’re still searching and we’re still looking, and (there’s) a lot of football left to play.”

Oh, dear. Mind you, this was two weeks ago after the now 8-5 Eagles lost on Black Friday, and before Philly’s $51 million dollar quarterback committed four turnovers (including a twofer on one play!) in a loss to one-handed Justin Herbert. Also, Sirriani has struggled with the media over the years - once infamously seeming to bring his daughters to a press conference to stave off firing - but this is worse. An 8-4 team that just won the Super Bowl “collectively” has no idea what’s wrong. The season’s pretty close to over! It just got worse! The Rams also lost two weeks ago to put themselves in a deadlock with Seattle (and only one up on the voodoo 49ers) but can chock it up to Carolina devil magic. Detroit gave themselves a chance and seemingly vanquished the surging Cowboys, only for the Eagles to prop the door to the division open with their own excrement. We also probably didn’t watch the most important Bears-Packers game this season.

Even further, how seriously should we consider the possibility that Carolina might just outright win the NFC South? Detroit’s out of the playoffs? Is that Jerry Jones’ music? So much is on the table for football’s messier half that we’re going to spin the NFC Wheel of Chaos and preemptively consider the potential goofiness of the final standings.

Reason Prevails

There are plenty of different permutations for seeding, so let’s give time to the most interesting and sensical. All percentages are provided by NFL.com:

Most Likely No. 1 Seeds:

• Rams: 42%

• Seahawks: 32%

• Packers: 12%

Seattle and Los Angeles are the titans of this season, duking it out as the mortals squabble down below. They are No. 1 and 2, respectively, in DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) by a lot. They’ve taken notes from each other. Both teams are dominant on the lines, tied for first in least sacks allowed and each top seven in sacks recorded on defense. Both are top five in yards per attempt, and each has - at least - one superstar receiver. The Rams take the edge because they’ve already beaten Seattle, and likely have two layups against Arizona and Atlanta, albeit after Detroit and the Seahawks. Seattle has four possible playoff teams remaining. Sort of. Indianapolis, led by Riley Leonard, might not bother getting off the plane (more on them later).

I’d propose the Rams as the most rational choice, mostly based on signal caller. Seattle’s defense is one of the two best in the NFL, and the Rams’ is just good. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a cheat code, but Puka Nacua is right there. The biggest difference - and why Seattle fans know they could implode at any moment - is turnovers. Sam Darnold has been a gunslinger and more than justified their decision to trade in the comparably floundering Geno Smith, but has 16 total turnovers to Stafford’s 7. His four picks against the Rams lost them the game that put them in this position.

A brief aside to the Packers. Jordan Love is encroaching on the upper tier of quarterback, so long as he can exorcise the demon that forces him to throw the most mortifying interception you’ve ever seen once per contest. The defense is better, and they have the best pass rusher in the conference. They’re just a half-game back (so glad the tie mattered) but have to play the Broncos, Bears in Chicago, and the Ravens likely fighting for their season. Odds are Brian Schottenheimer haunts them, and they finish one tie from a bye. Sneaky reason to root for chalk here - there’s a chance we get Bears-Packers round three on wild-card weekend, which we will naturally call the Thrilla in Mozzarella! I’m so sorry. An additional condolence for whomever between Tampa Bay and Carolina gets pantsed on live television by the loser of the NFC West race.

Most Likely Outcome:

1. Los Angeles

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Tampa Bay

5. Seattle

6. San Francisco

7. Chicago/Detroit

Sensibly, this is where we end up. The Wheel of Chaos claims no victims, the best divisions in football get at least two teams each. One of the top two seeds wins the Super Bowl. Yawn.

Chaos Reigns

This is more like it. Much in the theme of a chaotic 2025, this menagerie of bipolar teams is far more likely to produce an eclectic result. The events of Week 14 only the muddied the waters. Although as reliable as the local snake oil salesman, the NFL’s “Playoff Picture” webpage has 10 teams with a greater than 1% chance of playing into January. I’d argue every single one could conceivably win their division or miss the playoffs entirely, via divine intervention or self-combustion.

Who has a case? Who doesn’t. With so much attention on Seattle and Los Angeles as the likely one-seeds, it’s easy to forget that San Francisco is lurking one game behind at 9-4. Two losses to the Rams have them behind the 8-ball, but with a game left against Seattle they could fall ass-backwards into a one or two seed in a season where Mac Jones started eight games. My favorite part of football is all the sense it makes!

Chicago was the number one seed just one unfortunate Sunday ago. Caleb Williams continues to improve, and was one short-changed pass from tying the game against the division favorites. Over the previous five games, the Bears were averaging almost 200 rushing yards per game, were top five in offensive DVOA, and crept towards the middle of the pack defensively. They took Green Bay to the final seconds, and likely would’ve gone for two to ice it. If Kyler Gordon manages to not get hurt during a warmup, this secondary also has a chance to recover to full strength and give Chicago a signature unit.

The Lions are out as we speak and likely couldn’t catch Green Bay after losing to them twice, but could easily supplant Chicago for the 6th or 7th seed with another head-to-head win. A Hindenburg flameout by San Francisco or Philadelphia (they’re trying!) could put all three NFC North combatants in play, but they’re far more likely to cannibalize each other. Keep an eye out for Week 18 in Chicago, where Detroit could easily be vying for the final wild card or division at large. Gibbs and the alchemy-aided corpse of their defense might be enough to drag them across the finish line, or Jared Goff in the cold could spell doom.

Finally, Dallas. This remains deeply unlikely. Their only path to the postseason is through Philly - they’re 2.5 games back from the nearest wild card team and just lost to one of foes they’d have to jump. But. Dak Prescott has arguably been the most efficient QB in the league the entire season, and has the most passing yards over the last five games (a who-knows-anything aside, Jacoby Brissett is second). Ceedee Lamb might be concussed, but he and George Pickens remain two of the five best receivers this season, even as Pickens has drawn untoward attention about his effort. Not to give Jerry Jones too much - or any - credit, but the defense has been not bottom-10 against the run since trading for Quinnen Williams. Being mildly-not-horrendous on defense might be enough against the Vikings, Commies, Giants, and Chargers.

What comes next hinges on Philadelphia going at least 2-2 down the stretch and Dallas going 4-0. They play the Raiders, Commanders twice, and Bills. Only one loss you can count on; Chaos is relying on Marcus Mariota or Geno Smith. Dallas plays similar cupcakes, but is - to their great benefit at this point - not the Eagles. The Eagles are 28th in offensive success rate on the season, have lost their last three games, and appear close to Survivor-voting off one of Hurts or offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo (the second search result while trying to spell his name right, it stated “patullo house egged” for a fuller picture of how things are going). Squint too hard, and it’s already happened. Mayhem ensues:

Weirdest, Goofiest Outcomes:

1. Green Bay

2. San Francisco

3. Dallas

4. Carolina

5. Seattle

6. Los Angeles

7. Detroit

OR. After turning a few ones into zeros…

1. Seattle

2. Chicago

3. Dallas

4. Carolina

5. Los Angeles

6. Green Bay

7. San Francisco

What a world. In both these scenarios, Philly cedes its previously insurmountable lead, and any of the wild card teams could win the whole damn thing. Not addressed was Carolina overtaking Tampa Bay, even though they’re not favored. Baker Mayfield seems debilitated and the Bucs just lost to Tyler Shough-era Saints. These teams still play twice. I’ll give the Panthers the edge despite their stochastic preference to play like an entirely new team every week. Chicago either takes the division - vanquishing Detroit and Green Bay - or bows out completely. The only guarantee at the end of it all is that Jalen Hurts is a Raider.

AFC Quick Peek: What havoc hath the Colts wrought?

It was bold in the moment.

The Colts were 8-2 with one of the best offenses of the 21st century. Head coach Shane Steichen had saved his and general manager Chris Ballard’s jobs, Daniel Jones’ career, and banished the Anthony Richardson pick to the depths of Tartarus. With full faith in Jones - a quarterback who had previously won more than five games as a starter once - they traded their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks for defensive back Sauce Gardner. A previous All-Pro who had failed to maintain the elite production of his rookie season. To be clear, he is still good. Really good! He’s also under contract control for a few more years, the draft assets just imply you won’t need a quarterback the next two years.

That appears untrue. Jones is down an Achilles, the Colts are down to 8-5, and Riley Leonard - a man who is most known for being ran to the point of puking in the national championship game - is about to be atomized by the Seahawks. Even he is dealing with a knee issue that might necessitate Brett Rypien being bonesawed in his stead. Richardson is still on IR after reportedly fracturing his eye with a resistance band, an issue that - all jokes aside - seemed to seriously risk his vision. (Edit: Philip Rivers seems on track to start this game. Rivers is older than his head coach, offensive coordinator, and Prince William. Forgive any skepticism that he will save his buddy Shane’s job.)

Nothing good can come from the rest of this season. Jacksonville and Houston are surging, with both likely to make the playoffs. The Colts are now underdogs to make the postseason, after so recently being the gold standard. It shows how easily gold can tarnish, sure, but what’s next? Ballard has escaped culpability for the team’s stagnation since Andrew Luck stunningly retired, but such a misplay of assets would be a death knell for anyone else. Do you send Steichen to pasture along with him? The offense was astoundingly effective when rolling, but there’s little hope for next year without a functional quarterback. A QB class projected to be great, locked behind the mistakes of an administration looking to save its own hide.

The buck should stop with Ballard. He made the Gardner move looking to buttress a roster that was saving his job. Steichen should probably be given one more opportunity to save Richardson and rehab Jones. Maybe trade for Kyler Murray to feign respectability at the most important position, if that provides any. But honestly? If the Irsay daughters wanted to wipe the slate clean of the compounding errors committed in the past two years and clear the deck of the last leadership their father hired? They’d be justified.

Hundreds of games come down to the final possession every season. Much like a toddler recounting the dialogue of every scene in their incessantly viewed favorite Pixar movie (Finding Nemo twice a day, every day in 2006) we take the end of game for granted. Fight for the inbound. Heroic make, tragic miss, blunderous foul or clock expiration. Even a turnover makes sense; it’s a one-point game, of course they’re going for the ball.

But don’t forget, this is the 2025-26 Chicago Bulls. George - Washington’s best initiator (Mariana Trench low bar, granted) - gets doubled, Tre Jones goes for the ball. Pirouettes and falls. Throws it out of bounds.

Drive home safely. A Bullsian cherry on top: they were down 8 in the fourth quarter against a team that has now lost 14 in a row.

Observers will note that Chicago being middling is predictable. Sunrise-esque. While those thoughts are well-founded, this season’s start has actually been aberational versus years past. These Bulls are 9-7, compared to 6-10 last season, 5-11 the year before, and 6-10 the year before. They’ve started stronger, despite missing White for all but three games, facing a relatively difficult schedule, and having a -37 point differential.

A win is a win, but none of it feels sustainable. Nikola Vučević agrees.

“We just didn’t play up to NBA standards,” Vučević said. “We talked about it. I don’t think we understand that it’s just not sustainable to play this way.”

Vooch also expressed visible consternation at Matas Buzelis and Jalen Smith’s elation during his on-court interview. “C’mon! Be happy man!” jeered Smith. Vučević’s years germinating on the perennially eighth-seeded Orlando Magic has granted him prescience. In his words, this is isn’t sustainable. Buzelis and Smith have a point in wanting to take solace in victory. But them shooting a combined 8/24, the team giving up 41 points in the first quarter, and being bailed out by timely shots and defensive play by veterans is pretty microcosmic of the issues at hand.

It takes a complete game in the NBA. Games that come down to the clutch (defined as within five points with five minutes or less in the game) are amongst the most volatile situations in the league. The Bulls have played 11 such contests, going an admirable 7-4. And late game execution matters! This wacky team has just started to even frustrate its own. To again quote a wise, block-jawed scholar, “It’s just not sustainable to play this way.”

They’re also not particularly good in overarching metrics. Chicago ranks in the top 10 of the league in shooting efficiency from three and the mid-range, but is 28th at the rim. They’re 20th in offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass. And 20th in defensive rating. And have been worse in both the last two weeks, when their schedule has ostensibly softened up. Highlighting Vooch’s appraisal that they’re also “soft,” they also do not force turnovers and - on a rate basis - don’t grab a lot of offensive rebounds.

Simultaneously, Chicago is the NBA’s boot-and-rally all-star. Down 19 at half to Philly? No matter. Double-overtime loss to a Utah team begging for an excuse to trade Lauri Markkanen? Just to beat Jokic the next night? You think they called the Uber home, but they beat you to the next bar. At lot of this bears out in their game plan - and offers a good rebuttal that their “substandard” play is a feature, not a bug.

They get out in transition so much, and create so many extra possession to allow Bulls entropy to take hold and swing games in their favor. They’re second in pace but also first in passes made, second in rebounds per game purely from volume, and are third in percentage of shots taken in the first six seconds of the shot clock (19.1%). They’re creating so many possessions, and living with the results. Not a bad strategy on its surface. The Bulls have a similar skeleton to a mid-major college program on a Cinderella run in March. Moving fast and breaking things with a rabbit’s foot on standby in the fourth. They emanate a desperation late in games that is needed the entire game. Far more qualified people agree.

“We’re not talented enough not to play desperate,” head coach Billy Donovan said, after a recent loss to the Pistons. “If we don’t play that way, we are not good enough to stay in games.”

Those Pistons, while the creme de la East, were missing almost their entire starting five. Consistently competing against NBA teams - not even the good ones - requires accurate self-appraisal. What are we best at? Where do we find our edge? Donovan is honing in on that, even as frustrations with the finer points have grown.

Donovan knows his players’ strengths. After acquiring Josh Giddey two seasons ago, Chicago jumped from bottom three to top three the following season. Vučević is back to making jumpers, and has been trusted to win multiple games on last-second threes. Buzelis’ has been deployed to great effect on defense and put in a position to succeed on offense, even after cooling from a torrid start. Coby White is back and doing cool stuff again!

People love a sideshow. Chicago has been magnificently weird for viewers and (apparently) dramatically exasperating for some of the team. Drama!

How do we fix the Chicago? As a fan, fix what? A team with no hope for a championship or the lottery (blocking that out in the furthest recesses of my psyche) should be resplendent in its oddities. Would you ask Michelangelo to use duller paint on the Sistine Chapel?

For those with an interest in winning? It starts with defense and rim protection. Chicago has resolved to allow the most shots at the rim in the league - by a lot - in favor of preventing threes. It’s sort of worked, but Vučević was never a rim protector and isn’t going to become more of one at 35. Jalen Smith isn’t prepared to be an consistent interior deterrent. Finding a middle ground that takes advantage of Buzelis and some of their guards’ perimeter defense skills in relief of constantly allowing shots at the rim might be worth examining, otherwise Vooch urgently needs help down low.

Beyond technical suggestions, hope the message takes for the young guys. Buzelis looks like a future All-Star. White is still young and really good. Noah Essengue is banished to Mordor, but might be additive if locked-in on defense, at least. Above all else, find urgency earlier. Talent might be there - not enough to not be desperate.

Gracefully, we are also flush with ascending and steadfast excellence at QB. This week, we’re going to show West Coast Bias and Midwest Mindfulness, breaking down the Week 10 performances of two guys drawing a lot of attention this week: Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams. Stafford led the Rams offense to another dominant offensive performance against a wounded, but fiesty 49ers squad. Williams and the Bears keep finding rabbits at the bottom of that hat, pulling out a late 4th quarter comeback against the Giants.

We’ll parse through each game, highlighting some key plays that speak to each signal caller’s strengths. What has Stafford sharpened in his 17th season? How has Caleb improved under head coach Ben Johnson’s tutelage? Let’s dive in!

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 24-36, 280 Passing Yards, 7.78 yds/attempt, 4 Touchdowns, 1 Sack Taken

Stafford’s 2025 inspires incredulity in its own right, even for a future Hall-of-Famer with a Super Bowl ring. Feeling every bit of his 37 years on this planet, the Rams star battled a back issue this preseason that kept him out of so much practice that corners of social media jokingly(?) prognosticated his demise. That injury has exponentially decreased his already fading mobility. Per PFF, Stafford is bottom 10 in time to throw, bottom 10 in sacks taken, and has had three total scrambles this season, tied with similarly tortoise-like Joe Flacco. He’s not running and is getting the ball out quickly, surely in some small part to avoid hits.

It hasn’t mattered. Stafford is arguably the leading MVP candidate and has taken over as the odds-on favorite in some sportsbooks. His 25 touchdowns lead the league, his two picks are tied with Baker Mayfield amongst passers with at least 200 attempts. The Vulcan mind-meld between he and head coach Sean McVay has allowed them to construct a league-best passing attack despite a banged up offensive line and a QB with negative nine rushing yards.

First play of the game. Almost everything the Rams are awesome at in one serving. Stafford sells play action, hits the top of his drop, and delivers a perfect ball to rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson that is one toenail from an explosive play to start the day.

Stafford’s mobility may be limited, but he’s in no way struggling to execute drops or designed rollouts that add to the variability of the Rams’ offense. Later in this same drive (ending in a Kyren Williams rushing TD) Stafford hits Davante Adams on a play-action boot - translation: moving to his right out of the pocket - that was a single stride length from a score. Execution usurps foot speed.

Perfect example of such on this next play. Already up 14-0 and deep in the red zone after a San Francisco turnover, Stafford displays another superpower he and other top QBs continuously demonstrate: using every blade of grass.

Much has been made about the Rams’ dominance in and usage of 13 personnel this season (one running back, three tight ends) and this is an exemplar for why. Davis Allen doesn’t Allen Iverson anyone out of there shoes, but he and his tight end brethren make play-action easier to sell. Out of that concept, Stafford works towards the sideline, Allen’s defender crashes down towards Tyler Higbee and he just lofts it over his head while going out of bounds. Josh Allen is the leading expert at this maneuver. Maintain stress on the defense as long as possible and solutions materialize. The defensive back on this play clearly thought he had help behind him, but extended plays lengthen the opportunity for a mistake to be made. Defenders are forced to make last second reads as the QB approaches the sideline (particularly in the red zone, with condensed space) and great throwers make them wrong every time. Also Stafford’s 400th career touchdown pass!

The Niners weren’t as despondent as a 21-0 deficit in the first 16 minutes might suggest, but LA’s ruthless offensive efficiency kept this result in hand the rest of the way. Stafford wasn’t required to thread the needle with the game in the balance this week, so here’s a few examples of some the other cool shit he’s pulling off.

Sidewinder around the defender? No problem. Stafford’s had that in his bag since 2009. Part of the reason that McVay began to struggle with and wanted to move off of Jared Goff was a lack of this kind of talent. Goff has remade himself into a masterful operator of the Lions’ war machine, but Stafford has always been able to adjust find creative solutions and make chicken salad just in how he can manipulate his arm and maintain accuracy.

A gorgeous drop. Perfect play-action, top of the drop, perfect touch. Ferguson makes up for it with a 20+ yard catch on the same drive, but had already been sentenced to centuries on the JUGS machine.

Stafford’s last score was a walk-in by Colby Parkinson after a Niners morale-killing turnover on downs. As clean as performances come, a more competitive score (possible given LA’s defense is leaky outside of the front four) could’ve easily have demanded a 50 point day. Not mentioned enough were Adams and Puca Nacua, who’ve been arguably the top receiver tandem in the league. Both are elite space creators being fed by someone who doesn’t need big windows. Puca leaves nothing on the table after the catch, widening an already cavernous well of playcalling options. Undergirded by a rushing game with the ever-reliable Kyren Williams and increasingly involved Blake Corum, Stafford is well-supported. He’s taken advantage.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 20-36, 220 Passing Yards, 6.11 yds/attempt, 8 Rushing Attempts, 63 rushing yards, 1 Passing Touchdown, 1 Rushing Touchdown, 0 sacks taken

Be still, my beating heart. They don’t like to make it easy! Down 10 with 3:56 left on the clock (just 237 seconds, for the conversion curious) Chicago keeps clenching fingers on that monkey’s paw. A 24-20 win, capped by 17 yard rushing touchdown from Williams. I actually want to work backwards and use that final scoring play to illustrate what really is starting to work in Caleb’s game: when his athleticism and quality decision making coalesce.

First and foremost, two players motioning across the formation to block sells the hell out the play action fake, sending Williams on a boot left. Three receivers in front of him, layered low, middle, and high (Odunze in the end zone). In this situation, big game hunting would be understandable, especially with your best receiver in the end zone and having just missed big throws earlier in the day (we’ll get to that). Instead, Caleb scampers to the edge as all those potential targets block a freeway into the endzone. Good decisions all around, wonderful play design, and a timely score for a team that ranks 22nd in red zone opportunities converted into touchdowns.

Play-action into a laser to the center of the field. Dogmatic of everything Johnson’s Detroit days taught us about how he wants to play football. Caleb has dramatically improved on play fakes, raising his depth of target by three full yards on the play type while fully embracing a big play mentality between the numbers. Williams is 5th in PFF’s “Big Time Throws” to the deep middle of the field (20+ yards) despite a nasty case of butterfingers in the receiver room (25% drop percentage in that range, worst in the NFL).

Speaking of drops!

That would’ve been awesome!

That one too! Even moreso! Almost identical flubs by the targeted receiver. Caleb escapes pressure to the right on both plays, and throws bullets that slip through the hands of DJ Moore and Olamide Zacchaeus. It’s cold and they’re missiles, but the receivers make the money, too. Neither roll out was frantic; two technically delightful throws on the run that would make one passing touchdown day into arguably the most enthralling of Williams’ young career. Good thing there weren’t more consequential drops!

Oh dear.

No guarantee Swift gets the first down there, but worse in context of his teammates’ errors. It’s okay, everyone’s allowed one. First cold weekend in Chicago, after all.

Olamide gets two, I guess! Seriously, no pomp or circumstance here. Caleb takes the snap in an empty formation and hits Zacchaeus in the hands 20 yards down field. Unacceptable regardless of temperature, and a type of throw I can confidently say was not a given for Williams last year, or even a month ago. His consistency has slowly improved on the “easy stuff” (clean pockets, open first/second reads) and that lends itself to conviction on scrambles and out of structure plays. Convert the above plays (plus another 30-40 yards that went through Swift’s hands and off Rome Odunze’s fingertips, good god) and this is properly appraised as another breakthrough performance.

A couple more notes. Williams’ technically took zero sacks in this game (two were called back by penalties). The Theo Benedet Experiment at left tackle is a necessary evil, although he seems to be marginally improving. Caleb is becoming one of the best in the league at spinning out of danger and creating positive outcomes. Exhibit A:

Exhibit B:

Genuinely graceful in comparison to some of the bear-on-a-unicycle pocket movement we saw last year. Colston Loveland bails Williams out on a throw that was a little wide, but a little karmic retribution feels appropriate for this game. He’s still susceptible to pressure - his completion percentage is well below 50 on such plays - but the machinations of evading defenders is looking much better. More than a few sacks from last year’s league-leading 68 fell on Caleb’s indecision. Those warts remain. But as the line has improved at preventing pressure, he’s improved at avoiding it.

At first blush, 220 yards passing, an under 60% completion rate, and a seemingly undeserved win underwhelms. In context of what could’ve been, the process is good. Williams’ has clearly improved under Johnson, and not by becoming the hyper-efficient game management automaton (complimentary) that Goff is in Detroit. His creativity and big-play instincts are actually being nurtured. If this growth continues, the Bears’ offense - with Caleb as its ignition - might be enough to propel them to the postseason in a daunting NFC.

Tre Jones, G, Chicago Bulls

The Cardiac Bulls! Stacy King might not survive too many more of these. Scrapping their way to early-season-darling status, these Bulls are built on a few things. Shooting from range, passing, and running like hell. Chicago is top 5 in points per possession in transition, three point percentage, and assists per game, per Cleaning the Glass.

Jones embodies everything the Bulls have suddenly become great at. At the time of writing, he still is shooting over 50% from three (that’s good!) albeit on very low volume. More importantly, he’s been dishing almost 6 assists a game to Chicago’s armada of supernova-ing shooters and forcing more turnovers than he commits (2.3 steals per game to 1.7 turnovers).

His incessant pocket-picking provides even more opportunities to run on a team head coach Billy Donovan has ready to bolt at a moment’s notice. I found it illuminating that Chicago has been top 10 the last two seasons in transition opportunities off of live rebounds - defensive boards where play doesn’t stop, allowing transition to start - but is miles more efficient with those chances this year. Josh Giddey ascending as Australian John Wall is most responsible, but Jones is no slouch as his backcourt mate and is pushing the ball upcourt with the same controlled fervor.

Chicago is still nauseatingly poor at the rim (26th in percentage) and making hay on their opponents missing a lot of threes. If Joel Embiid had any conscience to stop missing fadeaways in the 4th quarter, they’d be one loss worse. That said, they know who they are, and so does Jones. His aggressive pursuit of the ball and control on the break is only additive to what this team’s identity seems to be going forward - haul ass and hope for the best.

Jeremiah Fears/Jordan Poole, G, New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans has a chance to reach Shakespearean tragedy depths. In trading up just 10 spots to draft Maryland forward Derik Queen at No. 13, they sacrificed their 2026 first-round pick to the Hawks. For those unaware of this macabre development, the Pelicans are 2-6, tied for last in a Western Conference where they and Utah might be the only two dancing into lottery oblivion - without their pick, in a draft where there might be (at least) three franchise-transforming players.

Fears and Poole represent opposite sides of this disaster. Fears, taken 6 picks prior to Queen, has had promising moments. Despite his discouring overall percentages from the field, he’s shown willingness to operate as an independent creator. He’s around the 50th percentile for shots assisted on, impressive in the context of being a 19-year-old guard facing NBA-level defense for the first time. Wet paper bag defense compounds the issues that has New Orleans in this situation, but was expected as a scoring-focused point guard. Divorced from the context of his franchise’s self-destruction, there is the silhouette of an offensive dynamo.

Conversely, Jordan Poole is a perpetuator of the current maelstrom. His basketball id has been overfed. Shooting just 35% from the field overall, Poole has murdered possessions at a rate reminiscent of his twilight in Golden State and worst impulses in Washington. New Orleans traded a reliable, if oft-injured vet (CJ McCollum) at the same position for Poole. For most rebuilding teams, this is a acceptable risk. At best, an appreciating asset to trade for future draft picks. At worst, a tank commander that helps solidify your odds at a high pick. Poole represents neither. Earning $31 million this year and $34 million next, no self-respecting team (Kings are still in play) would add that ballast to their cap sheet. He’s as negative a contributor to winning as you’ll find.

Usually, these two would actually be pretty harmonious. Fears leading the youth movement towards the next (only?) great era of Pelicans basketball. Poole accruing the team an extra second-round pick in the McCollum trade and his otherwise detrimental play facilitating the arrival of Cam Boozer/AJ Dybantsa/Darryn Peterson/other emerging college star. Queen will receive more acrimony for the Pelicans’ gaff as the centerpiece of a catastrophic trade, but these two will be just as responsible for the consequences.

Stephon Castle, G, San Antonio Spurs

Another guard! Only appropriate, as Castle and almost everyone else is in the shadow of the giant being initiated into superstardom in San Antonio. Wembanyama is the story of the nacient season, even in conversations about his teammates. How do they get him the ball? How do they work off of his neutron star gravity on the floor? Castle is at the center of these discussions, with No. 2 pick and fellow guard Dillon Harper battling injuries, and ‘24-25 midseason All-Star acquisition De’Aaron Fox having yet to suit up.

Freshly 21, Castle was the 4th overall pick in a ‘24 draft that panned as being devoid of top-end talent. He won Rookie of the Year, largely for lack of a superior option (sincere apologies to Zaccharie Risacher’s 12.6 points per game). In a stronger draft, the Spurs lucked into Harper as a potential running mate to Wemby. A downhill creator with savvy from the mid-range - 89th percentile shooting two point shots away from the rim, per Cleaning the Glass - Harper’s offensive talent draws attention away from the machinations of his basketball demigod teammate.

Fox appears likely to return soon but will need time to ramp-up, and Harper will likely be out a week or two with a calf strain. Castle has re-assumed his role from the beginning of last year - aspiring point guard on a team without one. The biggest difference is their overall success, and Castle’s comfort in that role despite the talent infusion crowding the picture. Now 5-2 after starting 5-0, San Antonio looks ready to skip ahead a few chapters in the story of their success. Whomever is getting Wemby the ball at the point now become one of the most important stories in the sport.

Castle’s averages are ascending across the board - he has a positive net differential after a being distinctly in the negative last season. He’s as intelligent a defender as advertised at UConn and is beginning to disrupt more passing lanes - he’s averaging two steals, almost double his rookie numbers. Most importantly, as Wemby learns to adjust to gameplans being dedicated to pushing him off his preferred spots, Castle’s competence sets a much higher floor than existed last season in San Antonio. His comfort as a lead guard will further winning for the immediate future in the wake of other star guards’ injuries, and buttress Castles offense-facilitating chops with Wemby in a way that might not have happened otherwise.

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